Friday, 27 November 2015
Buhari Bounce Becomes Bust as Nigeria Policies Irk Investors
Nigerian President Mohammadu Buhari.
Photographer: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images
- Growth rate set to slow to 16-year low of 3.3% as oil falls
- Naira policy is biggest concern, Citigroup analyst Howell says
Money that flowed into stocks and bonds in the West African nation, which McKinsey & Co. says could become one of the world’s 20 biggest economies by 2030, is now fleeing as growth prospects diminish along with oil prices. While Buhari, 72, has prioritized stamping out the graft that has plagued Nigeria since independence from Britain in 1960, policy-making appears as uncertain and haphazard as ever.
“After the initial euphoria, people have become disillusioned,” Ayodele Salami, who oversees about $500 million of African equities as chief investment officer of London-based Duet Asset Management Ltd., said by phone. “He would probably say that he’s being deliberative and cautious. But we expected more.” Duet’s Africa fund has cut its investments in the country to about 24 percent of the total from 38 percent in the last year.
Nigeria’s benchmark stock index has plunged 22 percent since reaching a year-high on April 2, the day after Buhari was declared the winner of the presidential race against incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. That’s the third-worst performance globally in the period, after the bourses in Ukraine and Egypt. The index advanced 12.5 percent in the two days after Jonathan conceded.
Garba Shehu, a spokesman for Buhari, didn’t immediately respond to written questions after requesting they be sent that way.
Many filling stations ran dry this month as the government withheld fuel subsidies to suppliers, preventing them from restocking. Lengthening lines forced Buhari to ask lawmakers for permission to pay 413 billion naira ($2 billion) in overdue payments, an amount that hadn’t been budgeted for.
While next year’s budget has yet to be finalized, Buhari wants to raise spending by 56 percent, according to a person who attended a briefing on the government’s plans and asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo says the government plans to spend its way out of a slowing economy and that an infrastructure fund will be created with public and private financing.
“You cannot deny there might be a fiscal element to the massive fine,” he said by phone from Paarl, near Cape Town. “It will make investors a little bit more wary of investing in Nigeria.”
An even bigger concern for many investors is the authorities’ naira policy. The Central Bank of Nigeria, with Buhari’s backing, has burned through $4.3 billion of reserves this year and choked off supply of foreign exchange to banks and their customers to defend the naira, even as major oil exporters such as Russia and Colombia have let their currencies slide. The restrictions prompted JPMorgan Chase & Co. to remove Nigeria from its local-currency emerging-market bond indexes, tracked by more than $200 billion of funds, in September, triggering a selloff in the nations’ assets.
While the naira has been all but fixed at about 198 to 199 per dollar since March, forward prices suggest it will drop by almost one-fifth, to 243.5, in a year.
Nigerian Breweries Plc, the nation’s biggest brewer that’s controlled by Heineken NV, said it takes two weeks to obtain dollars to pay for its imports, twice as long as it required a few months ago. Nestle SA’s Nigerian unit has had to wait six weeks for dollars, according to Renaissance Capital Ltd. analysts.
Buhari has won plaudits from leaders including President Barack Obama for his efforts to tackle graft. He replaced the management of the state oil company, which was accused of withholding billions of dollars from the government, and has stepped up the fight against an insurgency being waged by Islamist group Boko Haram.
“The degree of transparency we’re starting to get with the new administration is hugely positive,” Douglas Rowlings, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, said in an interview in Lagos. “It gives investors the perception that operating in Nigeria will now be done following proper procedures.”
Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Group Plc, which oversees almost $60 billion of emerging market assets, remains unconvinced that Buhari is up to the job. The fund manager sold all its Nigerian government debt in the past year.
“So far the Buhari administration has done all the wrong things,” Dehn said by phone from London. “Not only has he been incredibly slow in taking any action, when he finally has taken action on the economic front it’s been diametrically opposed to sensible policy. That is a major disappointment given expectations prior to his election.”
From:Yahoo News
Wednesday, 25 November 2015
Read What Prof. Soyinka Has To Say about Tinubu
"I do not admire Tinubu because he is a saint...
I do not admire Tinubu because he is from the south...I do not admire Tinubu because he is a Yoruba...
If I want saints, I will proceed to heaven not on earth...
Every human is fallible (but) I admire Tinubu because...
He saved Nigeria from the danger of falling into "one party state". He has nurtured many renowned National successors. He listened to the voice of the masses to surrender his personal ambition at the most critical moment.
He strategically terminated PDP 60 years life span in 16 years. The robust critic and critique we are enjoying today is because Tinubu aligned himself to the masses to return the power to them.
Tinubu has the option of joining the PDP elites to hold us hostage for another decade but he gave his all to the masses to dethrone the elites.
Political juveniles believed that APC won because of the votes from the North. No!!!, APC's victory was cemented the day Muhammadu Buhari and Asiwaju Tinubu resolved to work together.
Asiwaju and PMB almost became a Nomadic by visiting every human that can help midwife Nigeria's salvation. Those 'Nomadic Almajiri' walk later brought salvation to us.
God willing, PMB is the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Anybody, any cabal, any Viju milk activist, attempting to humiliate Asiwaju must have me to contend with.
An average PDP man is sad with Asiwaju because he brought them to their knees. If anyone thinks that to bring down Asiwaju is his project, that mission will not only crash but it will boomerang.
Don't tell me he is overbearing, your "underbearing" mentors were nowhere to be found when this Country was lying critically at the intensive care of the universe. Recall my first line, Asiwaju is not a saint. Stop demonising what you admire out of envy. Even your mentors admire him.
He owns Lagos? I hear you!
Ask your grand father and parents how they acquired your so called "family land". Is it God that allocated it to them?
You are terrorizing your neighbours and village with your kpof-kpof kobo yet you criticise a man that is naturally addicted to technocrats, irrespective of their tribe or religion.
He is evil? I agree, but we need more of him than any of your saintly specie.
Dear Asiwaju, the gentle stride of a tiger is not a symbol of a cowardice".
- Prof. Wole Soyinka's Tribute to APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Photos: Pope Francis arrives in Kenya
Buhari will decide on MTN’s N1.04tn fine- Minister of Communication says
“I don’t think there is any conflicting position on where government stands on the MTN issue. Recall that there were violations which were established against MTN. The violations were to the tune of five million subscribers.
There are many countries where subscribers, in the entire country, are not up to half of the five million. In the case of Nigeria, we had more than five million violations. However, both the government and MTN are on the same page that rules have been broken in this instance. The issue is now before Mr President. He will take the necessary decision at the appropriate time. And the President would do what is best for the public interest. The good thing is that MTN did not contest the fact that they had violated the regulations and guidelines. They never contested it. They admitted they were at fault. They apologized for their role in the saga and they made a commitment that what happened will never happen again. And of course, they made a plea for review of the payment terms,” he said.
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One of the Nigerians deported from the UK speaks "Half of the people on the flight have family here"
Basically, the charter flight is for today and they’re trying to get us on the flight. But here lies the problem. We all know very well, according to the rules anyway, if they want to take us they have to get travel documents for all of us. But then they have already issued travel certificates for everybody without anybody actually signing for it. How does that work? Obviously there have been allegations this week against the home office and against the Nigerian embassy about, you know bribary, to make sure she issues travel documents for people without their knowledge, you understand what I mean. According to the information we are getting, each person gets £3000. Basically, all of us have been sold to the British Government to do whatever they wants to do to us. We’ve been very calm. We’ve asked them can you get the home office to explain how they’ve got travel documents for us when we didn’t sign for it. Obviously that’s fraud because I haven’t signed for anything. How are we supposed to follow the rules and regulation when those rules and regulations of the Home Office clearly doesn’t apply to them. They actually break the law on a regular basis. They bribe people on a regular basis. Half of the people on the flight today have family here. They shouldn’t be going to Nigeria in the first place. I left Nigeria 17 years ago, right, I was 9 years old when I left Nigeria. I had only really lived in Nigeria for 6 years. And you are telling me it’s okay you can go back there. To where? My dad passed away last month. Who am I going back to? Who am I going back to? My sisters here, my brothers here. My niece has very big health problems. She’s got heart issues. They’re in London. She needs help on a regular basis. My sister cannot handle it. We are just sat in the room basically. We are waiting for the officers to forcefully remove us. We are just in the room waiting. Because at the end of the day, they haven’t answered our questions.
Photos: Nigerians on UK most wanted list in connection with various crimes
Olu Suliman, aged 30-35, aka William Suliman is wanted in relation to a 2008 rape investigation.
Omoniyi Adefeyetin is wanted by British Transport Police for over allegation of rape. The victim was pushed down and
bitten on the chest by Adefeyetin, he then forced her to remove her
clothes.
Abdul Ganiu Adedopo Sambo, age25-30 has failed to
attend British Transport Police Custody in relation to an offence of
Sexual Assault from Tuesday 21st April 2015.
Enquiries made also show that Mr. Sambo is involved in Fraud and Possession of False Documents with intent.
Freeman David Ibekwe,35-40 is wanted by South Yorkshire Police
for Tax Credit fraud and Money Laundering. Ibekwe failed to attend
Sheffield Crown and is wanted on warrant.
Olutayo Owolabi,35-40 is still at
large for 27 offences relating to tax credits and money laundering. In
January 2010, Owalabi was convicted in absence and sentenced to nine
months. He is believed to be in the UK.
Obinna Emenalu,35-40. Nicknames: Simon Emenalu, Emenalu Dube, Simon Dube, Obinna Simon Emenalu.
Emir of Kano Sanusi's Rolls Royce spotted in UNIBEN today
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